Top 10 signs you’re ready to race sub-3

There comes a point in every training block where the question surfaces: am I ready? You’ve done the miles, missed the parties, made the sacrifices. You’ve trained with purpose, lived the block and stuck to the plan. But deep down, you still wonder — can I actually run a marathon in under three hours?

This list is for that moment. A checklist to help you answer it honestly. These aren’t arbitrary targets or vague hopes. They’re the signs that keep showing up in the lives of sub-3 runners. If you can tick most of these boxes, then it’s not just a dream anymore. It’s a race you’re ready to run.

1. You’re regularly logging 100km+ weeks

You’ve built the volume, week after week. Not a one-off spike, but sustained high mileage that your body can handle. If you’ve been hitting 100 to 160km consistently and recovering well, the aerobic base is there.

2. Race pace no longer scares you

You know what 4:15/km feels like — in your legs, not just on your watch. You’ve hit it in threshold sessions, tempo runs and race-pace long runs. You’re not dreading it. You’re dialled into it.

3. You can run much faster than marathon pace and recover from it

You’ve developed range. Interval sessions at 5K pace or faster no longer flatten you. You’re turning over quickly in strides, handling hills and finishing reps with something left. You’re not just strong. You’re sharp.

4. Your long runs go beyond 30km and finish strong

It’s not enough to survive the distance. You’re finishing 32 to 36km runs with control, rhythm and maybe even a kick. If you can close a long run at or near race pace, you’re not bluffing. You’re ready.

5. Your body composition is dialled in

You’ve dropped unnecessary fat, held onto muscle and stayed strong throughout the block. You’re not dieting into race week or obsessing over the scale. You’ve done the hard work, and now your body reflects it — lean, light and resilient.

6. You’ve nailed your fuelling strategy in training

You know what you’ll take, when you’ll take it and how your body will respond. Gels, drinks, electrolytes — nothing is new. You’ve tested it on tempo days and long runs. It’s rehearsed. It’s reliable.

7. You’ve run a race that points to it

This isn’t guesswork. You’ve already raced a distance — 10K, half, even a previous marathon — that puts sub-3 within reach. Not a prediction app. Not a fantasy. You’ve seen the clock. You know what you're capable of.

8. Your pacing is disciplined and instinctive

You’ve learned to hold back when it matters and push when it counts. You’re not a slave to your watch, but you’re not winging it either. You know how to get through the first 5K calmly and the last 5K with fight.

9. You’ve done a fast-finish long run that felt like a breakthrough

There’s usually one. The session where everything clicks — where you run long, finish fast and know deep down: I’ve got this. If you’ve had that run, you’ve seen a version of race day already. And it went well.

10. You’re not just ready — you’re itching for it

You’re primed. You’re visualising the course. You’re checking the forecast. You feel like a coiled spring — not fatigued, not flat. You want the gun to go off. And you know why you’re on the start line.

Be honest with yourself. If you’re not ticking most of these boxes, that doesn’t mean you’ve failed. It just means you may need more time. Sub-3 is a serious target. There’s no shame in waiting until you’re truly ready. Better to aim steady and succeed than to gamble and blow up at 30km.

But if you’re nodding along to most of these signs — if they feel like your current reality, not some distant hope — then you’ve earned the right to believe. And belief is the most important quality a sub-3 runner can have.

Because on race day, when the doubts creep in, belief is what keeps you pushing. Not blind confidence, but the quiet conviction that you’ve done everything required. That you belong at that pace. That this is your time.

And if that’s where you are — then yes, you’re ready.